What is a falsifiable forecast?
A falsifiable forecast is a prediction stated clearly enough to be proven wrong: a specific event, a probability, a date, and the evidence that would change it. Vague commentary can never be checked. A falsifiable forecast can be scored, which lets readers see over time whether a source's judgment deserves their trust.
What makes a forecast falsifiable?
A defined question, a number, a resolution date and a named tripwire. For example: will the Bank of Canada hold at 2.5% on 9 December 2026?
Why score forecasts in public?
Hits and misses shown side by side reveal whether a source is calibrated. The Sovereo Decision Forecast keeps every call in a public ledger, including the misses.
How does the Sovereo Universe use them?
Every episode ends with an assessment, and a later episode, the Reckoning, scores it. Julian Castell puts his own call on the record too.