Issue #001 · Coming soon

Same oil. Two answers.

Case File 001 asks what one oil shock means for one household when two central banks answer it differently. On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%. The same day, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4%. Marcus Reed has to decide what that split changes in his actual budget.

The case

Signal. Oil moves on tension around the Strait of Hormuz. One strait, every economy. Two central banks read the same shock and give two answers.

Investigation. Ethan Murray tells viewers the consensus is clear. Julian Castell tells Marcus the window is closing and he should lock in now. The team traces why Ottawa and Washington moved differently.

Evidence. The central bank statements, the dates and the rates, checked on screen.

Choice. Marcus weighs acting now against waiting. Waiting counts as a choice.

Assessment. Sovereo puts a forecast on the record with a date. So does Castell.

Reckoning. Both calls are scored in public on 9 December 2026.

Source: Sovereo Daily SITREP, 29 October 2026. Figures as reported that day. Dramatization; not financial advice.

The forecast on the record

Question: Will the Bank of Canada hold at 2.5% on 9 December 2026?
Sovereo: A pause is a realistic possibility. The number is in the Decision Forecast.
Castell: “They’ll hike again. Count on it.”
Scored: 9 December 2026, in public

In this case